What is wrong with Al Sharpton’s brain?
On Friday, the New York Police Department released a pile-o-data regarding stops and frisks in New York. (See coverage in the New York Times and the New York Press.)
Here are some of the facts that are relevant to the question above:
- 55.2 percent of the persons who were stopped by New York police in 2006 were black.
- 68.5 percent of crimes involved suspects who were described by their victims or by witnesses as black.
If you’re like me, you look at those numbers and think, “Wow, the New York police are doing a really good job of not just stopping black people because they’re black, because they’re actually stopping black people at a rate thirteen percentage points lower than might actually be merited by reports from victims and witnesses!”
But when Al Sharpton looks at those numbers, he says, “One will have to explain how 55 percent of the people stopped are black when we’re not nearly 50 percent of the population.”
Huh?
So, according to Sharpton’s apparent “reasoning,” the police should be stopping people of different races at the same rates as their races appear in the general population, without regard to statements from witnesses and victims. Right? (If we’re going to adhere to that reasoning scrupulously, then we need to insist that about fifty percent of all police stops be targeted at women, too, even if substantially more than fifty percent of crime victims report male perpetrators. How about it, ladies?)
If we could reasonably assume that crimes are committed at equal rates by members of all races, then we could infer that wherever the percentage of police stops involving a particular race exceeds that race’s incidence in the general population, there may be a problem of racism by the police.
However, wouldn’t it be more reasonable to assume that, if witnesses and victims identify suspects by race, the percentage of races stopped by the police should match the identifications of those witnesses and victims?
Certainly, there remains the problem of whether those witnesses and victims are themselves identifying members of certain races disproportionately, but how are police supposed to know in any given case whether the witness or victim identification is accurate?
(There is an epistemological barrier that cannot be breached, unless the police add another statistical layer: Say a certain percentage of the population is known to be racist. If a witness identifies the suspect as a particular race, then you re-weight your pursuit according to that probability. Better yet, if the incidence of racism is higher within particular races, then you use a different weighting system according to the race of your witness. “Sorry, witness; you are 34% untrustworthy because you are a member of race X, which is known to be 34% racist. Therefore, in accordance with that information, we will increase the number of people of race X that we pursue in the course of investigating this crime, because we will assume that your probable racism affected your perceptions.” This rapidly turns into a dystopian science fiction nightmare, doesn’t it?)
If they followed the Sharpton model, then police would simply disregard the identifications of witnesses and victims and pursue a group of suspects whose races were proportional to their incidence in the general population. E.g., if you have a city of 1,000 people where 600 are white, 200 are black, 100 are hispanic, and 100 are “Asian/Pacific Islander,” and someone reports a murder, then you need to find 6 white suspects, 2 black suspects, 1 hispanic suspect, and 1 “Asian/Pacific Islander” suspect. If there is a witness who insists that the murderer was hispanic, that’s too bad; the police still need to expend their resources searching for the requisite number of suspects from the other races represented in the population.
How much more ridiculous could it get? Does Sharpton think police work should be guided by statistics regarding the entire population, instead of by tips from people who actually observed or were victims of the crimes?
What other characteristics that are unrelated to the actual crimes should guide the conduct of the police? Should they be stopping people according to the percentage of individuals in the population with a particular color eyes? By the percentage of individuals in the population at a particular height? Height-weight ratio? Should they be stopping people by the percentage of individuals with a particular disability? Should they follow the statistical breakdown for every crime?
Then those individuals with statistically unlikely characteristics would know they had a better chance of committing crimes and getting away with it. Naturally, the police would have to respond by altering their statistical approach and re-weighting their investigations to favor statistically unlikely suspects. Oh, what fun.
I can only conclude that Al Sharpton is incapable of thinking critically and rationally, at least on this issue.